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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union La Calera.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Espanola beat Union La Calera 3-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 0.77 xG and Union La Calera 1.20 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.71 / defence 1.38 against Union La Calera attack 0.84 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 24% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 46%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 60%, Union La Calera 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Union La Calera's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.16 PPG, Union La Calera 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights