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Shock result as U. Catolica defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Union Espanola 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.27 xG and U. Catolica 1.20 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against U. Catolica attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 36% | Draw 30% | U. Catolica 33%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, U. Catolica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, U. Catolica 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights