🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Union Espanola 0-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Everton de Vina attack 0.89 / defence 1.46, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 64% | Draw 20% | Everton de Vina 16%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights