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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 20, as Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique drew 2-2 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.76 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Iquique 24%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 59%, Deportes Iquique 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.18 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights