🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Union Espanola 0-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.01 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.82 / defence 1.33 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 24% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 51%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights