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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Union Espanola 1-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.32 xG and Colo Colo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.14 / defence 1.35 against Colo Colo attack 0.84 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 38% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 35%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 59%, Colo Colo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Espanola's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Colo Colo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights