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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat U. Catolica 1-2 at Claro Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.90 xG and Union La Calera 0.84 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Union La Calera outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.47 / defence 1.01 against Union La Calera attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 79% | Draw 13% | Union La Calera 8%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a Union La Calera win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 45%, Union La Calera 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Union La Calera winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights