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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Palestino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.21 xG and Palestino 0.99 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 41% | Draw 29% | Palestino 30%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 44%, Palestino 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Palestino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.70 PPG, Palestino 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights