🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

U. Catolica and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica and Everton de Vina finished level at 2-2 at Claro Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.52 xG and Everton de Vina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.19 / defence 0.89 against Everton de Vina attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 52% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 22%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 45%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights