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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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D. La Serena cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over U. Catolica.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat U. Catolica 1-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.74 xG and D. La Serena 0.72 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. U. Catolica fell 1.7 short of their projected output. D. La Serena outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against D. La Serena attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 80% | Draw 13% | D. La Serena 7%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a D. La Serena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights