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Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 0-3 hammering of U. Catolica.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 0-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.77, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 42% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 30%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 44%, Coquimbo Unido 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.57 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights