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Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Cobresal 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.28 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Cobresal attack 0.88 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 44% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 27%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 46%, Cobresal 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Cobresal's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.58 PPG, Cobresal 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights