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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over A. Italiano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat A. Italiano 3-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.56 xG and A. Italiano 1.18 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against A. Italiano attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 46% | Draw 26% | A. Italiano 29%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.47 PPG, A. Italiano 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. A. Italiano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights