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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palestino cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over O'Higgins.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat O'Higgins 4-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.28 xG and O'Higgins 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. O'Higgins outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against O'Higgins attack 1.23 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 40% | Draw 28% | O'Higgins 32%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, O'Higgins 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, O'Higgins 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. O'Higgins (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights