🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Palestino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nublense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Nublense 2-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.71 xG and Nublense 1.22 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nublense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Nublense attack 1.03 / defence 1.20, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Nublense 27%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 48%, Nublense 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Nublense 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights