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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out D. La Serena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat D. La Serena 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.81 xG and D. La Serena 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against D. La Serena attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 52% | Draw 23% | D. La Serena 25%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights