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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Palestino 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Palestino 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 0.85 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.60, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 26% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 44%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 48%, Coquimbo Unido 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.62 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights