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Shock result as Concepción defy the odds to beat Palestino 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Concepción beat Palestino 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.91 xG and Concepción 0.65 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palestino fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Concepción attack 0.64 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 67% | Draw 21% | Concepción 12%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Concepción win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights