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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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O'Higgins and D. La Serena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 4, as O'Higgins and D. La Serena drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.47 xG and D. La Serena 1.02 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against D. La Serena attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 47% | Draw 26% | D. La Serena 26%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights