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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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O'Higgins and Colo Colo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 17, as O'Higgins and Colo Colo drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.40 xG and Colo Colo 0.88 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Colo Colo attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 49% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 24%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 48%, Colo Colo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Colo Colo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights