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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nublense and Universidad de Concepcion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 13, as Nublense and Universidad de Concepcion drew 2-2 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.54 xG and Universidad de Concepcion 0.85 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Universidad de Concepcion outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.79 / defence 0.98 against Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 54% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Concepcion 21%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights