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Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.94 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.04 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.93 / defence 0.65, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 32% | Draw 31% | Universidad de Chile 37%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nublense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 42%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Nublense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights