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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nublense and Universidad de Chile share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 16, as Nublense and Universidad de Chile drew 2-2 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.19 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.12 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Universidad de Chile outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 38% | Draw 28% | Universidad de Chile 34%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 42%, Universidad de Chile 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nublense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights