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Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Nublense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Espanola beat Nublense 1-2 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.59 xG and Union Espanola 0.74 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Union Espanola attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 58% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 17%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 40%, Union Espanola 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Espanola's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.38 PPG, Union Espanola 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights