🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Everton de Vina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.62 xG and Everton de Vina 1.26 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Everton de Vina attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 46% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 30%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 43%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.28 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights