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Nublense and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 2, as Nublense and Deportes Limache drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.67 xG and Deportes Limache 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Deportes Limache attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 23%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 37%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.10 PPG, Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights