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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nublense and D. La Serena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense and D. La Serena finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.06 xG and D. La Serena 0.87 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. D. La Serena outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against D. La Serena attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 40% | Draw 31% | D. La Serena 29%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 37%, D. La Serena 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

D. La Serena's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.10 PPG, D. La Serena 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights