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Stalemate at Nublense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 8, as Nublense and Coquimbo Unido drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.99 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.11 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 31% | Draw 32% | Coquimbo Unido 37%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 45%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.25 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights