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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out A. Italiano 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat A. Italiano 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.28 xG and A. Italiano 0.96 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. A. Italiano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against A. Italiano attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 44% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 28%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 42%, A. Italiano 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.22 PPG, A. Italiano 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights