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Prediction vindicated as Huachipato edge out Union Espanola 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Huachipato beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.64 xG and Union Espanola 0.93 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Union Espanola attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 54% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 21%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 50%, Union Espanola 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.52 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights