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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Huachipato 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 0-1 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.11 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.21 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.20 / defence 0.87 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.26 / defence 0.64, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 33% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 39%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 55%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights