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Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Universidad de Chile.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Chile 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.07 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Universidad de Chile landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 35%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Universidad de Chile 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights