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Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 0-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.47 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Union La Calera 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG, Union La Calera 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights