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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 February 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 0.60 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union La Calera have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Everton de Vina.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Union La Calera winning.

It is worth noting that Union La Calera have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Union La Calera 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Union La Calera 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.47 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.858 / defence 1.007 | Union La Calera attack 0.956 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.059. Data: 30 Everton de Vina games / 30 Union La Calera games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.85. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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