🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Everton de Vina host U. Catolica at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026 at 05:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Everton de Vina — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Sausalito this season.

Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

U. Catolica's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.60 PPG versus U. Catolica's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 3, U. Catolica 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Everton de Vina trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

U. Catolica trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 42% versus U. Catolica 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 44% | U. Catolica 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.97 xG and U. Catolica 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.759 / defence 0.941 | U. Catolica attack 1.252 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. U. Catolica's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. U. Catolica have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Everton de Vina games / 45 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 47%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 2.13. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 30% | U. Catolica 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights