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Shock result as Palestino defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Palestino attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 30% | Palestino 33%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Palestino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Palestino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights