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Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.83 xG and Nublense 0.96 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Nublense outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Nublense attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 58% | Draw 23% | Nublense 19%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Nublense 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Nublense 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights