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Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Deportes Limache 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.02 xG and Deportes Limache 1.46 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.65 / defence 1.23 against Deportes Limache attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 47%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 47%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 0.87 PPG, Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights