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Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 16, as Everton de Vina and Deportes Limache drew 0-0 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.62 xG and Deportes Limache 1.02 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Deportes Limache landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Deportes Limache attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 53%, Deportes Limache 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 0.93 PPG, Deportes Limache 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights