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Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 5, as Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido drew 0-0 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.13 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights