🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 43%, yet in-form Cobresal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton de Vina vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 22:30 UTC.

Current Form

Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cobresal are 0.80 PPG clear of Everton de Vina in recent Primera División fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 1W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 6 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Everton de Vina winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Cobresal 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.21 xG and Cobresal 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.607 / defence 0.835 | Cobresal attack 0.960 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.118. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Everton de Vina games / 40 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 43% | Draw 29% | Cobresal 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Cobresal 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Cobresal 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights