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Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Union La Calera.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat Union La Calera 4-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.96 xG and Union La Calera 0.71 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 1.19 / defence 0.80 against Union La Calera attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 67% | Draw 20% | Union La Calera 13%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 50%, Union La Calera 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union La Calera's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG, Union La Calera 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights