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Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Deportes Limache 0-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.15 xG and Nublense 1.02 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against Nublense attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 39% | Draw 29% | Nublense 32%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nublense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 44%, Nublense 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Nublense's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 0.88 PPG, Nublense 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights