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Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 4-0 hammering of A. Italiano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat A. Italiano 4-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 0.95 xG and A. Italiano 1.04 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. A. Italiano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against A. Italiano attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 32% | Draw 31% | A. Italiano 37%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Deportes Limache win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 44%, A. Italiano 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Limache's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

A. Italiano's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, A. Italiano arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Deportes Limache winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights