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Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Deportes Iquique 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Deportes Iquique 0-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.26 xG and Union La Calera 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Iquique fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.99 / defence 1.34 against Union La Calera attack 0.80 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 41% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Union La Calera 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Union La Calera's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Union La Calera winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights