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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union Espanola run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Espanola beat Deportes Iquique 0-4 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.64 xG and Union Espanola 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Union Espanola outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Union Espanola attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 48% | Draw 27% | Union Espanola 26%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Union Espanola win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Union Espanola 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Espanola's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights