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Palestino cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Deportes Iquique 1-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.23 xG and Palestino 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Palestino attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 29% | Draw 25% | Palestino 46%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Palestino 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Palestino's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Palestino 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights