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Dominant Deportes Iquique run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Huachipato.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique beat Huachipato 3-0 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.06 xG and Huachipato 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Huachipato landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.85 / defence 1.56 against Huachipato attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 29% | Draw 27% | Huachipato 44%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Huachipato 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Huachipato's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights