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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Deportes Iquique edge out Deportes Limache 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique beat Deportes Limache 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.67 xG and Deportes Limache 1.04 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Deportes Limache attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 67%, Deportes Limache 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 0.52 PPG, Deportes Limache 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights