🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as D. La Serena defy the odds to beat Deportes Iquique 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat Deportes Iquique 1-2 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.68 xG and D. La Serena 1.19 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. D. La Serena outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against D. La Serena attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 49% | Draw 24% | D. La Serena 27%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual D. La Serena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 68%, D. La Serena 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

D. La Serena's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 0.60 PPG, D. La Serena 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the D. La Serena win broke the near-deadlock. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights